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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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